No lo dijo el equipo de populistas encabezados por Manuel Camacho (Elena Poniatowska, Luis Villoro, Ricardo Rocha), más interesados en la búsqueda de un cargo público (Seguro, Elenita la quiere girar de secretaria de Educación, Ricardo Rocha, a suplir a Cerisola), que en el bien de la nación.
No, tampoco los agoreros y acérrimos seguidores de Andrés Manuel (Lorenzo Meyer, Carlos Monsiváis, que de seguro quieren una beca de algo, para guardar su buen nombre) Si AMLO no había lanzado propuestas en radio y TV, seguramente es porque compró a los analistas financieros que trabajan para esa prestigiosa firma de economistas.
Esto (que dicho sea de paso, al parecer lo ignoraban los medios de comunicación), dice la firma, en un extenso comunicado que aparece el 5 de diciembre 2005:
"Es AMLO similar a Lula y Chávez", a lo que la calificadora responde que sería más aceptable, extraer lecciones de la propia historia de México.
(Bajado del Sitio de Standard & Poors)
"Do you see Mr. Lopez Obrador more as a Lula or a Chavez?
The "Lula versus Chavez" discussion is useful at a simple level to highlight the two contrasting models in Latin America. However, each country has its own circumstances, traditions, and institutions. In that regard, Mexico is neither Brazil nor Venezuela.
Mexico has a Congress that has become increasingly powerful, acting as a counterbalance to the president. Mexico has NAFTA, and a substantial part of its labor force works in the U.S. Government control of the oil sector places tremendous resources at the disposal of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez (at least when prices are high), allowing him to make decisions that hurt both the private and foreign sectors of the economy while still maintaining economic growth and his popularity. Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) will never supply a Mexican government with a flow of money that would enable it to reduce its dependence upon the private sector for investment and growth.
For example, oil accounts for over 85% of Venezuela's exports compared with less than 15% in Mexico. Oil has typically accounted for more than half of the government's revenue in Venezuela (and even more today with high prices). In Mexico, oil revenue typically comprises only one-third of the government's revenue (about 40% today with high prices). Economic growth is largely driven by the oil sector in Venezuela. In Mexico, the industrial sector, especially firms linked to the U.S. market, plays a key role in driving GDP growth and job creation. This economic reality, and the growing vibrancy of Mexico's democracy, places limits on the actions of any new government.
Brazilian President Lula da Silva took office during a crisis and was under tremendous pressure to commit to economic policies that his followers had traditionally rejected but at that point in time appeared inescapable. He did not want to inherit a possible financial and economic meltdown just as he became president, and his initial policy actions set the tone for the rest of his term. The next Mexican president is unlikely to enter office under similar dire circumstances.
Mexico's economy is open and will remain open regardless of who wins. The U.S. and Mexico are integrated through very open trade flows, investment flows (except in a few sectors such as energy, which are kept closed to foreign investment), and labor flows (both legal and illegal). Almost everyone in Mexico realizes that it would be disastrous for the country if these trade, investment, and labor links were suddenly reduced or severed. No other Latin American country has such strong ties to the U.S., which impose a strong anchor on economic policy and reduce the level of policy discretion for any new president.
Mexico has a history of macroeconomic crises and high inflation. Only recently has Mexico achieved a degree of currency and price stability, backed by an independent central bank. Anything that jeopardizes this newfound stability, especially macroeconomic policies that threaten a return to big deficits, will create a negative reaction both in the local markets and in the population (including among the poor, who suffer most from inflation). All leading politicians in Mexico have a clear understanding of this situation. "
El artículo completo, se puede extraer de la página de la consultora, http://www.standardandpoors.com. Realize una búsqueda por "Obrador", y aparecerá el artículo en cuestión. ¿AMLO, la vuelta al populismo? Nada, meras anti-promesas de campaña
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